Bad Omens for the GOP

[Requested by Praxxus]

Praxxus pointed me to a diary by thereisnospoon at DKos highlighting some amazing poll numbers:

Asked who is more likely to cut taxes for the middle class - 42 percent said Democrats, 29 picked Republicans. Who is more likely to reduce the deficit? 47 - Democrats, 22 - Repubicans. And, who is more likely to control spending? Democrats - 38, Republicans - 21.

In other words, on three of the core conservative values, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans--by a substantial margin.

Thereisnospoon draws some happy conclusions from this:

But what does this mean? I'll tell you. It means REALIGNMENT. In a big way.

The GOP is now no longer the Party of Reagan. Cutting spending and balancing budgets are out the window. Tax cuts for the middle class have been replaced with tax cuts for the rich.

All the GOP has now is authoritarianism (suspending habeas corpus, suspending civil liberties, installing the Patriot Act, etc.); corporate welfare (tax cuts for the rich, giveaways to Exxon and Halliburton); and religious fascism (abstinence-only education, denying a woman's right to choose, etc.)....In short, the GOP is TOAST if they can't move these numbers.

No question: these results are ominous for the GOP. They also hint at divisions within the GOP that we've seen widening over the last few years--between true fiscal conservatives and shamelessly self-serving hacks, between libertarian and authoritarian conservatives, between Goldwaterites and the religious right. What the numbers say is that the cracks in the coalition can't (or couldn't) be papered over forever.

At the same time, I'm not quite as optimistic about the GOP's demise, or the Democrats' dominance.

The reality here is not so much that the voters trust the Democrats on these issues as that they don't trust the Republicans. Who knows how much slack we'll get before we start losing points on this? (My feeling: not much.) The current crop of 'conservatives' went down in flames partly because they blew off more traditionally conservative values; that doesn't mean those values will work in our favor. Fiscal conservatism militates against a lot of good and necessary government initiatives (universal health care, for example); liberal initiatives invite Republicans to exploit the 'tax and spend' image again. I think these numbers currently look good for us because of extraordinary corruption and incompetence in the GOP; I don't see them lasting at that level.

Also, even if all they have is authoritarianism (of the militarist and Christianist varieties) and corporatism, we can't underestimate those things. The world is getting more chaotic; fear of terrorism is going to be an expoloitable issue for a long time to come. Society is changing more rapidly than ever; anxiety about change will continue to feed religious fundamentalism. And the people who benefit from corporatist policies may be few, but they have a hell of a lot of money to spend.

Still, it does look really bad for the GOP right now...and while the poll results are ephemeral, they reflect trends that are more lasting. I'm not going to deliver a eulogy for the Republicans just yet, but I do take heart from the numbers.

[That's all, folks]