Improvement Is Illusory

The March Atlantic has a heartbreaking study of a single block in Baghdad, and its disintegration over the last four years. Reading it, I thought about a point that is elementary, maybe obvious, but essential and largely overlooked: what we call 'improvement' is not improvement; at best, it's a deceleration of the decline.

When people talk about the security situation 'improving', what they mean is soemthing like fewer attacks, fewer soldiers killed, fewer kidnapings, and so on. The war continues, but at a 'manageable' rate--that's 'improvement'. There's still damage, though, and the damage is still irreversible. People who get blown to hell don't come back to life when the situation 'improves'. As long as the conflict continues, things are getting worse, even if the rate of deterioration is slower.

The Atlantic piece is one illustration of the continuing damage to the fabric of Iraqi society. As Debra says, Iraq has "a whole generation of children who are growing up knowing nothing but war and suicide bombers"; the longer the war continues, the larger that generation will be. And people who grow up knowing nothing but violent conflict tend not to create stable and peaceful societies.

I don't have any illusions that American withdrawal will end the conflict; it may well get much worse after we leave. On the other hand, it is clear that it can't actually get any better as long as we're there. It can only keep getting worse.

Keep this point in mind every time there's a lull in the carnage and somebody calls it 'improvement'.