Impeachment: Hope Is Not a Plan

I think it's important to keep talking about impeachment; I think it's equally important not to attempt it. I think it would be a colossal strategic blunder for Congress to try to impeach Bush at this point. This is not a particularly popular opinion in the liberal blogosphere; it's not even a popular opinion on this blog.

And there's good reason for that: impeachment is clearly justified, and removal of Bush and Cheney is clearly necessary. There's no question that the multiple criminal enterprises run out of the White House (illegal surveillance; systematically violating the Geneva Conventions; converting the Justice Department into a branch of the permanent campaign; doing the same with every major agency under the Executive branch; and so on) constitute 'high crimes and misdemeanors'; there's no question that, given their potential for causing further mayhem (one word: Iran), they need to be removed from office. And yes, alas, impeachment is the only constitutionally sanction way to do that.

But justified and necessary don't add up to possible.

Neither Bush nor Cheney (much less both) can be removed from office without the votes of 17 Republicans. I don't think it's possible, but I'm prepared to be persuaded; so far, nobody seems to be trying. I haven't seen anyone offer a plausible scenario in which we get those 17 votes. Without a detailed roadmap for getting there, a step-by-step strategy that doesn't involve ellipses or miracles, impeachment isn't a plan; it's a wish fulfillment fantasy.

Hope is not a plan.

What this also means, of course, is that the people to persuade on impeachment are not the Democrats but those 17 Republicans. Think they can be persuaded? Go to it. If you don't think they can be persuaded, then you agree that impeachment will not accomplish the only positive result that could justify the attempt.

Some people argue that the situation is so extreme that we should forget about calculation and forge ahead. I think the extremity of it all makes calculation more necessary than ever. In the best case scenario, we have exactly one shot at removing Bush and/or Cheney. If we take it at a time when it's guaranteed to fail, we don't get another one.

Some argue that even an unsuccessful impeachment would at least have symbolic value. I think that's terribly wrong: a successful impeachment sends a powerful message; a failed impeachment sends the exact opposite message. Start impeachment proceedings now, and be prepared for the press corps to talk about 'vindication' for Bush a year from now.

Josh Marshall is right to observe that we're on dangerous ground, and that the standard rules don't apply. There are extraordinary measures Congress can take, measures that would re-assert Congressional power, that wouldn't depend on the kindness of Republicans, that could lay the groundwork for a successful impeachment. I think they should impeach Gonzales (and they're moving in that direction); I think they should use their inherent contempt power; I think they should de-fund the White House.

And maybe after all that enough Republicans in the Senate will wake up to the assault on the Constitution that we can finally throw the bastards out. Maybe. Don't count on it, is all I'm saying.