Monday, February 04, 2008

My Personal Guess? Obama

My personal guess is that its going to be Obama in a landslide. Why? Because two friends at brunch yesterday retailed every bit of silly anti Clinton "wisdom" that has ever tittle tattled off the screen quite uncritically and are voting for him and both my parents are voting for him too (staunch liberals, shrewd voters). Hell, even I'm voting for him. What that means is that lots of people are treating this primary as an "all things being equal" Obama has fewer negatives than Clinton so why *not* vote for him. The Obama people are out in force here--Cambridge, MA--and no sign of HRC and her supporters.

I don't think that this landslide, which I hope happens, bodes any good for the party or the general election. Because its based on the same weak calculations as the obama/mccain matchup for independents is. Because the people I'm talking to are making the same (stupid) calculation I'm making which is that every other voter is just as dumb as I am. So they attribute to every other voter the same vague unease about Clinton--"its just terrible the way she let X" and "she's so divisive" is about the level of analysis. At the same time they are trying to align themselves with other voters to beat the hypothetical Republican nominee without realizing how very fragile their own analysis is. So they choose to vote for Obama because the Republicans have so shaped their view of Clinton that she's unelectable. And they don't really grasp how the media and the Republicans are going to shape their view of Obama and turn him into "unelectable" in a few months, too. Just look at what is happening to Bill Clinton's "statement" about "slowing down the economy." By the end of the primary season and the general Obama's uniter will have become "divisive" the fact that he "doesn't make republicans feel guilty" will have become "he's a raging LIEBERAL and he wants to impeach bush and cheney" and that wonderful racial healing that causes Republicans to say, starry eyed "he doesn't attack white people?" Why, we'll find out that he's nothing but the Black Panthers redux. And some not insignificant portion of the democrats will fall for it. Because if they haven't learned to distrust everything they hear on major news and read in major newspapers, they haven't learned anything in the last eight years.

Still, I'm incredibly excited. I took the "oath of office" yesterday to be a Clerk at our local primary and I have my 150 page booklet to read and I'll be at the Polls tomorrow from 6:30-9:00 or 10:00 trying to make sure that everyone gets to vote (Democrats, Republicans, Working Families, Green Rainbow and our own version of "declined to state" which is "Unenrolled" can all vote. But if those sneaky socialist party wannabes ask for ballots its no go). Its a historic primary and I can't wait to see how it turns out. We aren't allowed to say who has voted, or how they have voted, or do anything than other than point to the vote tallys on the machine all day. No talking politics--certainly no talking trash!--so pray for me.